2026 Hotel Data Conference: World Cup Boosts Hotel Rates, but Broader Demand Drives 2026 Outlook :: Hospitality Trends

Higher rate forecasts support hotel outlook

Bryan Wroten of CoStar reports U.S. hotel industry forecasts have improved for 2026 and 2027, driven largely by stronger-than-expected growth in average daily room rates, according to speakers at the 2026 Hotel Data Conference.

CoStar and Tourism Economics raised their full-year forecasts after hotel revenue data showed that room rates have increased more than anticipated. Amanda Hite, president of STR, CoStar’s hospitality analytics division, said the industry is now expected to record revenue per available room, or RevPAR, growth of 4.4% in 2026.

Average daily rate growth is projected to reach 3.1% by the end of the year. Hite said demand has generally tracked earlier forecasts, but higher room prices have increased expectations for hotel revenue.

The outlook for 2027 was also revised upward. Hite said the industry is entering next year with stronger conditions than previously expected, including gains across average daily rate, occupancy and RevPAR in most chain-scale segments.

World Cup contributed to summer performance

FIFA World Cup matches held in the United States during June and July supported hotel performance, particularly through higher room rates. Hite said rate results during those months exceeded expectations, with July providing momentum for the rest of the year.

However, conference speakers said the industry’s growth is not limited to World Cup host markets. Hotels across the country have reported gains in demand and rates, including in locations without matches.

Corporate travel and group business have also strengthened during 2026 and are expected to remain important sources of demand in 2027. Hite said this broader demand base reduces the risk of a sharp decline in hotel performance after World Cup-related travel ends.

Supply growth remains below 1% for the hotel industry overall. However, new hotel development in the upper-midscale and upscale segments has limited occupancy increases in those categories. As a result, RevPAR growth in those segments is expected to be more restrained than in other parts of the market.

Profit growth continues, but margins face pressure

STR expects gross operating profit for U.S. hotels to rise 4% in 2026. Beginning in March, hotel revenue growth exceeded expense growth, according to Hite. This marked a shift after more than a year in which hotel expenses had been rising faster than revenues.

Despite the improvement, hotel operators continue to face cost pressures. Hite said gross operating profit per available room, adjusted for inflation, remains below 2019 levels. Profit is increasing in nominal terms, but hotel margins are expected to decline compared with the previous year.

The combination of rising revenue and continued expense pressure means hotel operators may see improved financial results without fully recovering to pre-pandemic inflation-adjusted profitability.

Inflation and consumer finances remain risks

Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, said inflation continues to affect household finances and consumer sentiment. Core personal consumption expenditures inflation, excluding food and energy, remains above 3% year over year, he said.

Energy costs have also increased, with gas prices up 45% since the beginning of 2026, according to Sacks. These increases affect consumers’ purchasing power even as travel spending has remained resilient.

Consumer sentiment declined significantly during the first half of the year, though it has since recovered some. Sacks said sentiment and spending are no longer moving closely together, as consumers have continued to spend despite concerns about prices and the broader economy.

Consumer spending has recently grown faster than income, indicating that households are using savings to maintain spending levels. Sacks said this trend is unsustainable and could lead consumers to reduce spending in the near term as they rebuild their savings.

Tourism Economics expects inflation to cool in 2027, partly because tariff effects are expected to have less year-over-year impact and energy costs are projected to decline. Sacks said the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates near current levels through the rest of 2026 and for much of 2027.

World Cup revenue fell below Super Bowl comparison

Jan Freitag, national director of hospitality analytics at CoStar Group, said the World Cup’s hotel impact did not match comparisons to 104 Super Bowls, a reference made by FIFA President Gianni Infantino regarding the tournament’s 104 matches.

Early hotel occupancy data for World Cup match markets appeared weak compared with the prior year, but occupancy increased sharply in the week leading up to the opening matches. Freitag said travelers booked rooms later than expected, using booking patterns similar to other leisure events rather than planning far in advance.

The event primarily raised room rates rather than occupancy. Some host cities recorded lower occupancy than in 2025 because corporate groups and meeting planners avoided the markets during match periods. Higher rates often offset the reduction in group and corporate demand, supporting RevPAR.

CoStar analysts calculated that recent Super Bowl weeks generated about $108 million to $110 million in room revenue over a four-day period. Multiplying that range by 104 would equal approximately $11.3 billion. By comparison, the 104 World Cup matches generated a combined $3.9 billion in room revenue during the relevant periods.

The analysis suggests that the World Cup provided a substantial revenue benefit for hotels but did not produce hotel room revenue equivalent to 104 Super Bowl weeks.

Discover more at CoStar.