Oilsands emissions on track to outpace reductions from Pathways project: economist

An environmental economist says the oilsands sector is on track for a “fairly significant” increase in greenhouse gas emissions, even with the Pathways carbon storage project moving forward. 

Dave Sawyer, who is with the Canadian Climate Institute think tank, says Pathways would offset just a portion of the emissions a new West Coast pipeline would enable.

The institute has estimated an average of 20 megatonnes a year in new emissions from the oilsands sector with new planned pipeline capacity. 

The Pathways Project — being pursued by the five biggest oilsands companies — envisions storing six megatonnes a year underground starting in 2035, with the goal of an additional 10-megatonne reduction by 2045. 

The new million-barrel-a-day pipeline Alberta is pursuing to southern B.C. is to be developed, built and operated by federal Crown corporation Trans Mountain Corp., which is also expanding its existing line to the Vancouver area. 

Under the Alberta-Ottawa energy accord signed last year, the new pipeline is conditional on Pathways moving ahead and vice versa; Sawyer says the carbon capture project is also likely to depend on big government spending. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 14, 2026.

By Lauren Krugel | Copyright 2026, The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.