If it feels like it’s been raining nonstop in Montreal lately, the Old Farmer’s Almanac isn’t offering much hope for a break. The publication recently released its long-range weather forecast for fall 2026, and Quebec is looking at a wetter-than-normal season as summer winds down.
Worth noting upfront: Almanac forecasts are made up to 18 months in advance using a secret formula that blends solar activity, astronomical positioning and historical weather patterns, rather than the computer-based atmospheric modeling meteorologists typically rely on for shorter-term forecasts. So this isn’t the kind of prediction you’d want to plan a wedding around. That said, both The Old Farmer’s Almanac and its sister publication, the Farmers’ Almanac, claim an accuracy rate of around 80%, so it’s not nothing either.
What’s in store for Southern Quebec
According to the Almanac, temperatures across Southern Quebec this fall will vary depending on where you are in the province. The eastern half is looking at warmer-than-normal conditions, while the west trends cooler than usual. There’s no mention of snow, but anyone who’s lived here long enough shouldn’t rule out the possibility.
September and October are both expected to bring more rain than average across the region, so if the wet stretch lately has felt relentless, the Almanac isn’t promising much of a break.
What’s happening in neighbouring regions
Quebecers keeping an eye on the rest of the country might notice a similar pattern taking shape nearby. Atlantic Canada is set for average temperatures in September before a warmer-than-normal October, with a notably wet fall overall, especially in the eastern provinces, which are expected to see two straight months of above-average rainfall.
Southern Ontario is looking at a cooler September before temperatures head back closer to normal in October, with rainfall running well above average in the east and slightly above average in the west.
The bigger picture for Canada
Zooming out, the Almanac says Canada as a whole is shaping up for a milder fall, with warmer-than-average temperatures expected across most of the country, aside from parts of central and northern Canada and southwestern British Columbia, which should run cooler. On the precipitation side, the outlook calls for above-average rainfall almost everywhere in the country this fall, with British Columbia being the main exception.
You can explore the entire forecast for Canada and the United States here.
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