With fall just days away, Toronto could see some of its final 20°C-plus temperatures of the year this weekend before temperatures begin to steadily drop.
According to The Weather Network’s 14-day forecast, temperatures are set to reach a high of 21°C on Friday, with the humidity making it feel closer to 22°C.
Saturday is shaping up to be noticeably cooler, with a daytime high of 18°C and an overnight low of 14°C, though temperatures will quickly rebound on Sunday to a high of 21°C.
However, after this point, it doesn’t look like Toronto will be seeing 20°C-plus for the foreseeable future. Monday is expected to bring a high of just 17°C and an overnight low of 11°C, with temperatures hovering around the same range throughout the rest of the week.
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are also currently expected to reach highs of 17°C, with nighttime lows between 13°C and 14°C. Looking ahead to next weekend, temperatures are still anticipated to remain below the 20°C mark.
While temperatures will dip slightly, the trade-off appears to be less precipitation. Although there’s a small chance of showers in the middle of next week, conditions are expected to clear up in time for sunny skies throughout the weekend.
Based on The Weather Network’s two-week forecast, temperatures in Toronto are not expected to climb back above 20 °C until at least Oct. 1.
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac September forecast for southern Ontario, longer-range models also point to a relatively cool month for the region. The average temperature for September is expected to be around 15°C, which is 1°C below average.
However, temperatures are expected to shift closer to seasonal averages throughout October, when the average temperature is predicted to be 11°C.
While the immediate forecast points to cooler fall weather, Ontario could be in for a very uncharacteristic winter, thanks to a “supersized” El Niño.
According to an update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño is now firmly established and is expected to intensify into a “very strong event” over the next few months. Models show a near 100 per cent likelihood that the climate phenomenon will persist through February 2027.
The natural climate pattern is characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Although El Niño is often associated with warmer winters across Canada, its influence on fall weather can be slightly different.
Still, the cooler pattern that tends to develop over Ontario during strong El Niño falls usually breaks by December, resulting in a late onset of winter. In Toronto, December temperatures during strong El Niño winters have averaged 2.6°C warmer than usual.
Recent posts:
10 things to do in Toronto this weekend (Aug. 18-20)
One of the world’s coolest neighbourhoods is in Ontario