Anyone who lived through the start of last December in Montreal probably remembers it. Wind chills were forecast to hit -25°C in the first week of the month, and by mid-December MétéoMédia said the first half had run about 5°C colder than normal.
Thankfully, this year’s weather forecasts are pointing in a very different direction.
The 2027 Canadian edition of the Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its December outlook for southern Quebec, and it’s calling for a milder month than usual, with snow arriving in waves instead of one long freeze. Like all of its long-range predictions, it’s based on a formula dating back to 1792 that combines solar science, climatology and meteorology. The Almanac says its forecasts are about 80% accurate, though meteorologists have long been skeptical of predictions this far out.
Keep in mind that it covers southern Quebec as a whole, not Montreal specifically.
Southern Quebec’s December 2026 forecast
The Almanac is predicting an average temperature of -2°C for December, about 3°C above normal. Precipitation is expected to total 70 mm, roughly 10 mm below average.
That figure is rain and snow combined, so a lower total doesn’t rule out a few good snowfalls.
Week-by-week breakdown
Here’s how the month could play out:
- December 1 to 5: Rain and snow showers, with mild temperatures
- December 6 to 14: Snowy periods in the east and flurries in the west, with temperatures turning cold
- December 15 to 26: Snowy periods, with mild temperatures
- December 27 to 31: Periods of rain and snow, with temperatures turning cold
The Almanac splits the region between east and west for the second week and doesn’t say which side Montreal would fall on. If the forecast holds, the snowiest stretch lines up with the holidays, which we covered in our white Christmas forecast.
What the meteorologists are saying
For once, the Almanac and the meteorologists are mostly on the same page.
MétéoMédia’s preliminary outlook expects the first half of winter to be mild, with the biggest warm anomaly in December. Meteorologist Kevin Cloutier said forecasters are especially confident about the start of the season.
The reason is a “super El Niño,” a strong warming of Pacific waters that tends to send mild Pacific air across Canada while keeping Arctic air bottled up near the pole. MétéoMédia says that setup could also steer storms south of the border, which would mean more grey, rain and slush than lasting snow in southern Quebec.
MétéoMédia’s André Monette said one of the mildest winters on record is possible, especially in December, but “far from a guarantee.”
A mild winter isn’t a snow-free one, though. Mid-winter normals in Montreal are around -6°C during the day and -15°C at night, so snow can still stick around. And in a more recent update, MétéoMédia noted that a polar vortex disturbance could still bring cold air south in late November or December.
When could Montreal get its first big snowfall?
On average, Montreal gets its first snowfall of 15 cm or more around December 23, according to MétéoMédia, using data from 1991 to 2020.
Last year’s storm hit more than a month early, on November 10, when Montreal woke up under 20 centimetres of snow. The Almanac’s snowiest periods this year fall in mid- to late December, which is closer to the usual timing.
As always, it’s best to treat all of this as a general preview and keep an eye on Environment Canada and MétéoMédia as December gets closer.
And whatever the month brings, winter tires are mandatory in Quebec from December 1 to March 15. If you haven’t booked yet, here’s when you should actually switch, and which vehicles are exempt.
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