The 2026 Executive Brief by Phocuswright and ITB Berlin outlines how artificial intelligence, trust, data control, and inequality are expected to transform the travel industry by 2046, raising questions about who will control travel, how value will be determined, and whether travel will remain accessible to all.
Overview of the Executive Brief and Leadership Exchange
A new Executive Brief released in April 2026 by Phocuswright and ITB Berlin examines the future of the travel industry over the next two decades. The report is based on discussions from the inaugural Leadership Exchange, held on March 3, 2026, at CityCube Berlin. The event brought together senior travel leaders to discuss the impact of artificial intelligence (AI), trust, data, and inequality on the sector. The closed-door session, conducted under the Chatham House Rule, focused on four central questions: ownership of trust, value distribution in an AI-native industry, the accessibility of travel, and the future structure of the sector.
AI’s Role in the Future of Travel
The brief outlines a scenario for 2046 in which AI companies manage global data flows and travelers depend on intelligent agents for planning and booking. Some destinations are expected to limit access to address overtourism. The report notes that the travel industry is undergoing a structural shift driven by AI, on a scale similar to the early days of digitalization. The Leadership Exchange aimed to provide actionable insights for businesses, governments, and stakeholders as they navigate these changes.
Trust as a Central Issue
According to the brief, trust is becoming a fragmented but increasingly valuable asset in a world mediated by AI. Trust is now built through numerous micro-interactions and human signals, such as user-generated content, and must be integrated into every stage of the customer journey. The proliferation of AI-driven booking channels may blur accountability and increase the risk of significant trust failures. The report emphasizes that trust will be assessed not only for companies but also for consumers.
Shifting Value and Brand Challenges
The report highlights that as AI agents take over search and discovery functions, personalization will become a key opportunity for the industry. Travel experiences are expected to be tailored in real time using deep data insights and individual preferences. However, this shift could reduce the relevance of traditional intermediaries and weaken established brands, as the “source of truth” becomes the main differentiator. The brief predicts that by 2029, traditional discovery methods will largely disappear, with personal agents acting on behalf of travelers.
Access, Inequality, and Regulation
While technology could make travel more seamless and inclusive, the brief notes that economic inequality, geopolitics, and regulation will increasingly determine who can travel. Easier mobility may lead to more connected societies, but could also intensify overtourism and strain infrastructure. The report suggests that travel may become a privilege for some, rather than a universal right, as countries use visas or pricing to control access.
Industry Structure: Fragmentation or Consolidation
The brief discusses the potential for AI to empower smaller players through hyper-personalization, allowing niche providers to reach targeted audiences. However, control over data could also lead to monopolies. The future structure of the travel ecosystem may be shaped by the tension between decentralization and concentration. The report concludes that decisions made in the next three years regarding data ownership, trust frameworks, and technology integration will have long-term impacts on the industry.
Conclusion
The Executive Brief by Phocuswright and ITB Berlin presents multiple scenarios for the future of travel, emphasizing the importance of today’s choices in shaping the industry’s trajectory through 2046. The complete brief is available for download online.
