Democrats score two upset wins in Florida special elections

TAMPA, Fla. – Florida Democrats are touting two upset victories after Tuesday’s special elections, including one in Palm Beach County and another in a closely watched state Senate race in Hillsborough County.

Hillsborough Special Election Results

In Hillsborough, Navy veteran Brian Nathan pulled off a narrow win in the race for a state Senate seat previously held by Republican Jay Collins.

RELATED: Democrat Brian Nathan upsets Republican Josie Tomkow in race for Senate District 14; unofficial results

Collins was tapped to serve as Lieutenant Governor last summer and his seat has since sat vacant. 

Nathan faced Republican Josie Tomkow, who gave up the Polk County House seat she had held since 2018 to run for the Senate seat in a neighboring county. 

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While District 14 has changed hands several times between democratic and republican candidates, Collins won the district by 10 points in 2022. Since then, the district, which includes South Tampa and western and northern parts of Hillsborough County, has added a growing number of registered Republicans.

Political experts did not expect the upset from a little-known democratic candidate. 

Tomkow entered the race with a long list of notable endorsements and a deep well of campaign contributions that afforded her a steady stream of television, phone, digital, and mail ads in the weeks leading up to election day.

The contest also brought record turnout for a special election. Nearly 27% of eligible voters turned out to the polls, nearly double the turnout for the last special election in Hillsborough County. 

What’s next:

Nathan said the result could signal a broader trend heading into the fall midterms, which have historically favored the party out of power in the White House.

“Look how close the numbers were. I think this is just going to be the pattern we’ll see through the rest of the state all the way from now through November,” Nathan said.

The Other Races

Democrats also flipped a Florida House seat in Palm Beach County.

Emily Gregory won more than 51% of the vote in a district that includes Mar-a-Lago and that President Donald Trump carried by 9 points in 2024. It marks the first time in decades that a Democrat has won the district.

In Polk County, Republicans kept control of Tomkow’s former House seat. Republican Hilary Holley easily defeated Democrat Edwin Perez in the special election.

Looking Ahead

Because the Hillsborough Senate race was so close, an automatic recount could still be triggered.

According to the unofficial results, Nathan won by 408 votes, giving him a margin of about half a percentage point.

The Hillsborough supervisor of elections still needs to verify around 150 signatures, so the final margin was not yet settled as of Tuesday night.

Tomkow conceded defeat Tuesday night, but said she plans to run again in the general election in November. Nathan said he is looking forward to a rematch.