Montreal summers are already too short and this year’s might start even later than usual

If you’ve been mentally counting down the days to patio weather in Montreal, you may want to brace yourself a little.

A new report from MétéoMédia is painting a pretty underwhelming picture for the start of summer in southern Quebec this year. According to weather experts, May and June are shaping up to be cooler than normal, temperatures in Montreal could struggle to hit their own seasonal averages, and the warm weather Quebecers have been dreaming about since November might take its time showing up.

The report points to an incoming El Niño pattern as the main reason, which historically tends to push warmth toward Western Canada while leaving the east with cooler conditions. Meteorologist Nicolas Lessard told MétéoMédia that while brief heat surges are still possible, the overall trend for the early part of the season should lean toward cool and unsettled weather.

What MétéoMédia calls “felt summer” — the point when temperatures durably settle in around 23 to 25°C — normally arrives around mid-June in southern Quebec. This year, that moment could come later than usual. The last few times similar El Niño conditions developed, in 2009, 2015, and 2023, Quebec summers got off to rough, disappointing starts. MétéoMédia’s early analysis suggests 2026 has a solid chance of following the same pattern.

That said, the Canadian Farmer’s Almanac, which has been publishing long-range forecasts for over 200 years, is taking a notably different view of what summer 2026 holds for southern Quebec overall.

It’s worth noting that the Almanac is not a meteorological authority and its forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt, but according to its predictions, July could actually break heat records, with two stretches of intense heat bookending the month and very little relief in between.

August, it says, follows a similar pattern, with a particularly brutal stretch mid-month and heat that lingers right through to the end.

So the more optimistic read of the situation is that summer might be slow to arrive this year, but once it does, it could make up for lost time in a big way.

For now though, keep the jacket nearby. May is not looking like it’s going to do us any favours.