It might still feel like fall outside, but winter is going to start dropping hints pretty soon.
The Canadian edition of the Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its long-range forecast for November, and it’s calling for snow in southern Quebec as early as the first week of the month. That includes Montreal, Quebec City and the Ottawa area.
Unlike the short-term forecasts you’d get from Environment Canada or MétéoMédia, the Almanac’s predictions are made months in advance. It uses a combination of climatology and meteorology to come up with them, comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current trends.
For what it’s worth, the Almanac claims its forecasts are traditionally about 80% accurate. Still, it’s best to take them as a general guide rather than something to plan your weekend around.
The good news? Snow or not, November isn’t expected to be a deep freeze.
Southern Quebec’s November 2026 forecast
According to the Almanac, November will be milder and drier than usual in southern Quebec.
The average temperature is forecast to be 3.5°C, which is 2°C above normal for the month. Precipitation is expected to reach 60 mm, which is 20 mm below average.
So while there will be some snow in the mix, it doesn’t look like Montrealers will be digging out their shovels for good just yet.
When snow could start falling
The month is expected to kick off with rain and snow showers from November 1 to 5, and temperatures will be on the chilly side.
That could give Montreal its first taste of snow for the season, though the forecast doesn’t say how much will actually stick around.
Week-by-week weather breakdown
After that wintry start, things are expected to brighten up. Here’s what the rest of the month could look like:
- November 6 to 10: Sunny and turning warm
- November 11 to 16: Periods of snow and rain, with mild temperatures
- November 17 to 20: Sunny and chilly
- November 21 to 23: Snow and rain, mild
- November 24 to 30: Sunny at first, then periods of rain and snow, with warm temperatures
In other words, November could be a bit of a back-and-forth month, with a few rounds of snow mixed in between sunny, mild stretches.
What about the rest of winter?
If you’re already wondering what’s coming after November, the Almanac has some predictions for that too.
Overall, it’s calling for winter temperatures to be above normal in southern Quebec, with the coldest periods in early to mid-January and mid- to late February. Precipitation is expected to be below normal, but snowfall should be near to slightly above normal.
The snowiest periods are predicted for mid- to late December, mid- and late January, mid- and late February, and early and mid-March.
Of course, the Farmer’s Almanac’s long-range forecasts are based on its own formula (rather than the short-term models used by meteorologists). So it’s still a good idea to keep an eye on the regular forecast as the weeks go by.
And with winter tires mandatory in Quebec starting December 1, it might be worth getting your appointment booked before that first snowfall hits.
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