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After a winter that arrived early and overstayed its welcome, Quebecers were probably hoping for a bit of a break in the weather department. According to MétéoMédia’s new spring forecast, that break is not coming anytime soon.
The local weather outlet is calling for a cold, wet, and drawn-out spring across much of the province. And in case you’re wondering, southern Quebec and the Montreal area won’t be spared.
Temperatures
Southern Quebec has already sat below normal temperatures for four straight months. MétéoMédia says that trend is not about to reverse itself overnight.
Western Quebec is expected to remain below seasonal normals through spring, while the St. Lawrence Valley will hover closer to normal. That might sound okay on paper, but normal for this time of year means -2°C in March and 6°C in April, so don’t get too excited.
Warm days will happen, but forecasters are warning not to read too much into them. “We could get caught off guard with brief stretches of late-spring-like weather, even as early as April,” meteorologist Patrick Duplessis said in the report. “But these won’t last long. They’ll be more like false hopes of something a bit more summer-like settling in.”
The last time Quebec had a spring this rough was 2019.
Snowstorms still possible
Southern Quebec typically sees another 50 cm of snow after winter officially ends, and MétéoMédia is forecasting that the province will match or exceed that this year. Active storm systems tracking up from the Gulf of Mexico through the Great Lakes are expected to keep precipitation above normal for much of the spring, particularly in the first half of the season.
Spring snowstorms have caught Montreal off guard before. A March 2017 storm buried Montérégie under more than 50 cm and left hundreds of drivers stranded on Highway 13 for hours. It is not out of the question that something similar could happen again.
Flooding
The flood picture is complicated. On the one hand, this winter’s snowpack is composed largely of light, dry powder that holds relatively little water, which keeps the flood outlook at a moderate level for now. That is a much better starting point than what led to the major floods of 2017 and 2019.
On the other hand, the cold has been relentless enough to build up an unusually thick layer of ice on Quebec’s rivers and waterways. MétéoMédia says that ice is the main thing to watch. If temperatures climb too quickly and heavy rain arrives at the same time, ice jams could cause serious flooding in vulnerable areas.
Elsewhere in Canada
Ontario is essentially in the same boat as Quebec, with below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation expected across the province.
The Prairies are looking at the toughest spring of any region in the country, with well-below-normal temperatures forecast as cold air pushes south repeatedly.
British Columbia comes out ahead of everyone, with the Rockies blocking the worst of the cold and above-normal snowpack setting up a strong spring ski season.
The Atlantic provinces get the most comfortable spring overall, with temperatures near normal and no major storm activity on the horizon.
