Summer in Montreal is almost here, and if the latest weather forecast is any indication, this one is going to feel a little different from recent years.
A new MétéoMédia report forecasts summer 2026 being Quebec’s coolest in nine years, driven by a rapid shift from La Niña to a strong El Niño pattern. But according to André Monette, head of meteorology at MétéoMédia, conditions will still be comfortable.
“We’re not going to be shivering in Quebec this summer,” he says. Temperatures are expected to come in near or slightly below seasonal norms, not dramatically cold.
What this actually means is a more variable summer than Montrealers have gotten used to. Rather than sustained stretches of heat, expect the season to swing between cooler spells and shorter warm periods. “Instead of having a well-anchored pattern all summer, like a heat regime, there’s likely to be a variation of regimes,” Monette explains.
The rapid back-and-forth between La Niña and El Niño is essentially leaving the weather pattern unsettled. Days in the low 30s are still on the table, but back-to-back heat waves pushing into the 33s and 34s will be harder to come by. The average high in southern Quebec between June 1 and August 31 sits around 26°C, and this summer should land somewhere close to that mark.
There’s also a silver lining for people who dread July electricity bills. Less extreme heat means air conditioners won’t be running at full tilt all season, and MétéoMédia notes that outdoor enthusiasts should have an easier time than in recent summers, with fewer heat-related risks on active days.
More rain
These cooler, more unsettled pattern also comes with more precipitation days than usual across Quebec. Total rainfall is expected to finish slightly above average by the end of August, though not by a dramatic margin. Monette points out that summer rain in Quebec tends to arrive as short showers rather than the prolonged soaking you get in fall, so more rainy days doesn’t necessarily mean more ruined weekends.
Gardeners and anyone with a vegetable patch should do well this year. The same pattern that brings more frequent rain also keeps temperatures from becoming oppressive enough to dry out the soil between storms. On the severe weather front, the cooler air actually works in Quebec’s favour, with MétéoMédia forecasting fewer episodes of violent thunderstorms in both Ontario and Quebec this summer.
Fewer hurricanes
El Niño also tends to suppress tropical storm formation in the Atlantic basin, which means Quebec is less likely to see the tail end of a hurricane rolling through this summer. That’s good news for anyone who remembers tropical storms Beryl and Debby in the summer of 2024, both of which dumped significant rainfall on the province.
One wildcard worth watching, according to MétéoMédia meteorologist Patrick Duplessis, is typhoon activity in the Pacific. El Niño tends to produce more typhoons, and their trajectories can ripple across and influence weather patterns in North America. “This is a situation to watch especially in the second half of summer, with the cooler conditions being a bit more intense in Quebec,” Duplessis says.
What about wildfire smoke?
Western Canada is forecast to have a warmer and drier summer than Quebec, with a high-pressure ridge expected to sit over British Columbia and Alberta for much of the season.
That raises the risk of more active wildfires out west, and if that happens, the smoke won’t stay there. Quebec has seen its skies turn hazy in past fire seasons, and MétéoMédia flags that as a real possibility again this summer depending on how things develop.
