Warm autumn days hit different in Quebec. That’s because we all know exactly what kind of weather is coming once they’re gone for good.
In case you’re wondering when the white stuff will fall this year, the Farmer’s Almanac just released a week-by-week breakdown of what the season looks like across Quebec, and the picture it paints depends heavily on where in the province you actually live. If you’re in Montreal or anywhere else in the south, you’ve got a while yet. Up north, not so much.
Before we dive in, though, it’s worth noting that these forecasts aren’t built like a typical weather report. Instead of computer modelling, the Almanac relies on a formula blending solar activity, historical patterns, and astronomical positioning, put together up to 18 months in advance. On the bright side, the publication claims roughly 80% accuracy.
So take this as a loose seasonal guide rather than something to plan around too firmly.
September
The month starts off dry and breezy, with cool, stable air settling in from September 1 to 3. Central Quebec turns rainy and cool from the 4th to the 7th, before southern Quebec shifts into unsettled territory between the 8th and 11th, with variable skies and a chance of brief thunderstorms.
Things stay cool and windy through the 12th to 15th, followed by a milder stretch from the 16th to 19th before colder air moves back in. Temperatures drop again from the 20th to 23rd under cloudy skies, and a stormy system with heavy rain and strong winds rolls through from the 24th to 27th.
The month wraps up fair and breezy, with frost possible inland heading into October.
October
Early October stays dry but chilly, from the 1st to the 3rd. Then, between October 4 and 7, the first real hint of winter shows up: rain mixed with some snow in northern Quebec. Flurries continue up north from the 8th to 11th, while the rest of the province deals with wind and cooler temperatures.
Thanksgiving weekend looks solid, with a brisk, chilly stretch from October 12 to 15 that includes patchy inland frost but a decent sun-and-cloud mix across southern Quebec. That doesn’t last, though. Temperatures drop sharply from the 16th to 19th, bringing frost and snow showers to higher terrain and northern Quebec. A brief warm-up follows from the 20th to 23rd, with sunshine returning to most of the province, especially in the south.
The back half of the month swings again. From October 24 to 27, southern Quebec deals with rain and wind while snow becomes possible up north. Halloween itself looks cloudy and cool, with dry conditions in the south and snow still confined to the north.
November
Southern Quebec starts the month dry, while flurries continue up north from November 1 to 3. From the 4th to 7th, snow moves into northern Quebec more firmly, and by November 8 to 11, that snow (along with wind) pushes into central Quebec too, not just the north.
A colder stretch with inland flurries runs from the 12th to 15th, followed by snow showers specifically in northern Quebec from the 16th to 19th. Southern Quebec catches a brief reprieve between the 20th and 23rd, with rain returning there while snow lingers up north.
Then comes the real shift. From November 24 to 27, a strong system is expected to bring heavy snow across Quebec, no longer just the northern half of the province. The month closes out cold and unsettled, with snow squalls inland and the possibility of an icy mix reaching southern Quebec between the 28th and 30th, the first time snow-related weather is expected to touch the Montreal area directly in this forecast.
If this breakdown is accurate, northern Quebec could be seeing its first snow within the next several weeks, while Montreal and the rest of southern Quebec likely won’t deal with anything wintry until the very end of November.
Wondering how the winter will play out? Check out the Almanac’s full forecast for the season here.
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