Just a few weeks ago, Toronto was warned to brace for a snowy, icy and unpredictable winter, with southern Ontario potentially seeing storms hovering around the freezing mark. Now, one of the strongest El Niño events ever observed could be throwing a bit of a curveball into the forecast, with the UN’s weather agency predicting a nearly 100 per cent chance of the event hanging around until at least February 2027.
“El Niño in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement. “We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies.”
In Canada, El Niño’s effects tend to be associated with milder-than-usual winters, especially across the western and central parts of the country (and Toronto appears to be leaning toward the warmer side of that equation). Environment and Climate Change Canada’s latest seasonal outlook currently favours above-normal temperatures for Toronto this winter: from December through February, the forecast gives Toronto a 50 to 59 per cent probability of above-normal temperatures, while from January through March, Toronto has a 70 to 79 per cent probability of temperatures running above normal.
Oh, and just because the weather will be warmer, it doesn’t contradict the Farmers’ Almanac’s 2026-27 Canada forecast of “Snow, Sleet, and Surprises!” Toronto could see long stretches of mild weather and still get walloped by some very cold days or a major storm or two (as long as it’s not as bad as last winter, we’re good).