Statscan study affirms the narrative that the expense of raising children is holding back couples from becoming parents, Prof. Marina Adshade says.Dan Froese/The Globe and Mail
Women in high-income families are increasingly more likely to have children than those in lower-income households, according to a new Statistics Canada report, highlighting trends that experts say are likely to accelerate.
The study, released earlier this week, found that women within the top 20 per cent of family incomes had a 14.1-per-cent likelihood of giving birth to a first child in 2023. That’s more than double the likelihood for women in the bottom quintile of family wealth, who had a 5.6-per-cent chance.
The research looked specifically at data on women between the ages of 22 and 39 who were employed and living with a married or common-law partner.
“Having children is now a privilege for people with higher incomes,” said Marina Adshade, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia, adding that she expects the trend to continue.
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Women with higher individual earnings were also slightly more likely to have a child than women with lower incomes, although overall family incomes played a larger role.
As well, women with public-sector jobs had a particularly higher likelihood of having a child. In 2017, they were 16.3 per cent more likely than others to have a first birth. In 2023, they were 34.3 per cent more likely. The report found that birth rates for public-sector workers were higher regardless of income level, which was notable because differences in other sectors were minimal.
These trends have grown since 2017, when women in the highest-income families were 2.1 times more likely to have a child than those in the lowest-income families. In 2023, the same group was 2.5 times more likely to have a child.
“Similar patterns have been observed in other high-income countries, suggesting that economic advantage may be playing an increasing role in who becomes a parent,” the report read.
Prof. Adshade, who has written a book on how economics influence relationships, said the Statscan report runs contrary to the popular narrative that the growth of women in the work force has led to declining fertility rates.
On the other hand, she said, it affirms a different narrative, that the expense of raising children is holding back couples from becoming parents.
Housing was among the fastest-growing cost pressures during the study’s timeline from 2017 to 2023, but Prof. Adshade said child care has become one of the biggest factors holding families back.
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Kelly Ho, a certified financial planner with DLD Financial Group in Vancouver, said the cost of groceries and other household items is also having an impact on families’ finances and their decisions on whether to have children.
“No matter the income bracket, everyone is talking about that,” Ms. Ho said.
Even when her clients do decide to have a child, she said, the discussion around having additional children is heavily affected by the family’s finances.
“When deciding whether to have a second child, they really look closely at their cash flow to see if they can make the maternity leave work and whether they can pay for the child care,” Ms. Ho said.
She said families often worry about the cost of a second child, since it would effectively require them to stretch the same budget even further.
Ms. Ho observed that Gen Z clients are extremely financially conscientious and are coming of age under difficult economic circumstances. She cited this as another reason she thinks the trends highlighted in Statscan’s report could continue.