In Brief: A new U.S. Travel Association forecast projects an $11 billion decline in international visitor spending in the United States, intensifying pressure on Congress to address travel and tourism policy issues following the midterm elections.
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New Forecast: $11 Billion Drop in International Visitor Spending Raises Stakes for Congress After Midterms – Image Credit Unsplash
Record domestic trips and rising costs underscore risks to jobs, local tax revenues and holiday travel ahead of the December 11 funding deadline.
Two days after the midterms, a new U.S. Travel Association forecast puts a price on America’s travel slowdown: inflation-adjusted international visitor spending is projected to fall nearly $11 billion in 2026, a 6.3% drop to $163 billion. Despite a record 2.44 billion domestic trips, total inflation-adjusted travel spending is projected to decline 0.7% to $1.35 trillion.
Travel prices are projected to rise 7.2% in 2026, more than twice overall inflation of 3.4%. U.S. international arrivals are not forecast to recover to 2019 levels until 2030, and the U.S. share of global long-haul arrivals has fallen from 10.3% in 2019 to 7.7% in 2026 and is projected to slip to 7.1% by 2030.
“The election is over, but the economic stakes are only getting higher,” said Geoff Freeman, President and CEO of the U.S. Travel Association. “Travel supports American workers and communities. Congress has a December deadline to protect holiday travel and a new year to reverse the loss of international visitors.”
The economic stakes — nationally and locally
Jobs and tax revenue. Travel supports more than 15 million American jobs and generates $92 billion in state and local taxes. Following a September meeting with President Trump at the White House, travel industry leaders proposed a national goal of welcoming 100 million international visitors annually by 2030. Achieving that goal could generate $68 billion in additional annual visitor spending and support more than 350,000 additional jobs. The projected $11 billion year-over-year spending decline represents economic activity at risk across visitor-serving businesses; it is not a modeled jobs or tax-loss estimate.
Local exposure. In New York City, international visitors represented roughly half of tourism spending in 2025; all tourism supported 397,000 jobs and $7.5 billion in tax revenue. Other gateways—including Miami, Los Angeles, Orlando and San Francisco—also depend on high-spending overseas guests. Meanwhile, elevated fuel prices weigh on regional drive markets as more Americans shift toward car travel.
| Destination | International arrivals, 2019 → 2026 | Change In International Arrivals 2019 to 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 79.4M → 67.8M | −14.6% |
| France | 90.9M → 111.9M | +23.1% |
| Spain | 83.5M → 106.6M | +27.7% |
| Japan | 31.9M → 44.9M | +40.7% |
| World | 1.47B → 1.64B | +11.7% |
International overnight visitor arrivals. All 2026 figures are forecasts. U.S.: U.S. Travel Fall 2026 Forecast (Tourism Economics, October 2026). Other destinations and world: WTTC Economic Impact Research 2026 (April 2026 data).
Congress has a near-term test — and a longer-term mandate
Before December 11: Pass government funding and enact lasting protections so TSA officers and air traffic controllers receive uninterrupted pay during future funding lapses, reducing the threat of holiday airport disruptions and travel chaos in the next divided government.
In 2027: Reauthorize Brand USA and restore to full funding, expand visa processing and stop unnecessary visa fees, entry barriers and uncertainty, while accelerating investments in air traffic control and airport security modernization. These steps deliver greater value for domestic travel and the national goal of welcoming 100 million international visitors a year by 2030.
“The current Congress must keep America moving this holiday season. The next Congress must help America compete,” Freeman said. “We have the opportunity to deliver a better travel experience for Americans and bring more international spending and jobs back to our communities. Standing still is not a strategy.”