Hope you weren’t planning on holding off on the winter tires much longer.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its October weather forecast for Southern Quebec, and it’s already pointing to a specific window when the season’s first snow could show up, well before Halloween decorations even come down.
As always, it’s worth noting that Almanac forecasts are put together up to 18 months in advance using a mix of solar activity, astronomical positioning, and historical weather patterns rather than the computer modelling meteorologists rely on for shorter-term forecasts. The publication says it correctly predicts the direction of seasonal temperature and precipitation swings, meaning whether a month runs warmer, cooler, wetter, or drier than average, about 80% of the time.
So it’s directionally useful, but not really the kind of thing to base firm plans around.
When the snow could start
According to the Almanac, the stretch to watch is October 11 to 17. That’s when the forecast calls for a mix of rain and snow showers across Montreal and its surrounding regions, with chilly temperatures to match, making it the clearest window yet for the season’s first flakes.
The rest of the month, broken down
Temperatures for October overall are expected to average around 8.5°C, about half a degree below the seasonal norm, with precipitation running slightly above average at around 100mm.
The month starts with showers before clearing up from October 1 to 7, with chilly conditions holding through the week. Showers return for a short stretch from October 8 to 10, alongside a brief warm-up. After the mid-month rain-and-snow mix, skies clear again from October 18 to 21, sunny at first before turning rainy and mild. The month wraps up from October 22 to 31 with a mix of sun and showers, trending warmer to close things out, which is good news for Halloween enthusiasts.
The monthly predictions line up with what the Almanac’s broader fall forecast, released back in August, which called for a wetter-than-normal season across the region and warned not to rule out snow, even without committing to a specific date at the time..
None of this guarantees an early snowfall, but if the Almanac’s pattern holds, mid-October is worth keeping an eye on for anyone hoping to keep their boots in the closet a little longer.
You can check the Almanac’s full fall forecast for Canada and the U.S. here.
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