Global Travel Rises in Early 2026, but Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Growth

Overview of International Tourism in Q1 2026

The first quarter of 2026 saw 307 million international tourist arrivals, according to the latest UN Tourism data. This figure represents an increase of about 6 million travelers, or 2%, compared to the same period in 2025. Growth was strongest in January and February, with a cumulative rise of 2.5%, but slowed to 0.4% in March as the conflict in the Middle East began to affect travel patterns.

The ongoing conflict is expected to reduce overall growth in international arrivals by 1 to 2 percentage points below the initial UN Tourism forecast of 3% to 4% for the year. Factors contributing to the slowdown include disruptions to flights in and around the Middle East, decreased traveler confidence, higher oil prices, and jet fuel shortages. These issues have led to increased airfares and reduced flight capacity, not only in the Middle East but also in other regions. As a result, some travelers are opting for destinations closer to home.

Regional Performance in Q1 2026

Europe and Africa showed the strongest performance during the first quarter:

Europe: Over 130 million international tourists visited, a 4% increase compared to Q1 2025. Southern Mediterranean and Northern Europe both saw 4% growth, while Central Eastern Europe grew by 6%. 

Africa: Arrivals increased by 4%, with North Africa up 4% and Sub-Saharan Africa up 4%. North Africa recorded an 18% increase in March. 

Asia and the Pacific: The region saw 3% growth, with strong results in February (+9%) but more moderate growth in March (+2%). South Asia experienced a 27% decline in March due to disruptions at Middle Eastern air hubs. Oceania (+9%) and North East Asia (+5%) performed well. However, overall arrivals in Asia remained 11% below pre-pandemic levels. 

Americas: Arrivals increased by 2%, with Central America seeing strong growth (+18%) but South America declining by 1%. 

Middle East: The region experienced a 14% decline in arrivals, with several Gulf destinations reporting significant drops. Egypt, however, saw a 16% increase in arrivals.

Countries with the highest growth in arrivals included Paraguay (+46%), New Zealand (+45%), El Salvador (+43%), Mongolia (+39%), Palau (+37%), and Uzbekistan (+37%). In terms of tourism receipts, Pakistan (+60%), Republic of Korea (+38%), Morocco (+24%), Brunei (+22%), and Brazil (+12%) reported notable increases.

Key Challenges: Conflict and Rising Costs

A recent survey of tourism experts identified the Middle East conflict, high transportation and accommodation costs, and broader economic factors as the main challenges facing international tourism in 2026. About 64% of experts said the conflict is negatively affecting travel demand for their destinations, with 43% rating the impact as moderate and 21% as high. Another 36% reported little or no impact.

Additionally, 61% of experts said the conflict is reducing inbound tourism, while 17% noted an increase in inbound tourism due to disruptions elsewhere. About 14% observed a rise in domestic tourism as some travelers replaced outbound trips with domestic travel.

Outlook for the Rest of 2026

The UN Tourism Confidence Index, based on input from 300 tourism professionals, showed cautious optimism for the May-August period, which includes the Northern Hemisphere summer. The index scored 105 (on a scale where 100 indicates unchanged performance), lower than the 117 recorded for January-April.

While 39% of experts expect better or much better performance in the coming months, 31% anticipate worse results. Concerns include the duration and scope of the conflict in the Middle East, ongoing flight disruptions, volatile oil prices, and high travel costs. The crisis has also shifted destination preferences, with some travelers choosing locations closer to home.

In the Americas, the upcoming FIFA World Cup in Canada, the United States, and Mexico may boost tourism in June and July.

Industry Indicators

According to IATA, international air traffic grew 4% in Q1 2026, except in the Middle East, where it fell by 16%. Global air capacity increased by 2% but dropped by 6% in March, mainly due to a 57% decrease in the Middle East. Global hotel occupancy reached 64% in March, with the highest rates in Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific (all 65%). The Middle East saw occupancy fall to 48% in March from 75% in January.