It’s beginning to look a lot like… Christmas? Well, no, not at all. And, it’s hard to say if Toronto will even get a white Christmas this year at all.
If the developing super El Niño has anything to say about it, the odds may be tipping toward a green Christmas in the city.
The very strong El Niño that everyone is talking about is expected to influence weather patterns across Canada this winter, and it is already impacting with the resulting mild fall season. Southern Ontario is among the regions where forecasters are anticipating warmer-than-normal temperatures. That is likely to mean a slower start to winter, fewer opportunities for snow to build up over a longer term as well as a greater chance that any early snowfall will melt before the holidays.
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s seasonal outlook gives Toronto a 93 per cent probability of above-normal temperatures for November through January. The forecast has a historical skill rating of 40 per cent, classified as medium, so it offers a useful indication of the broader weather pattern rather than a guarantee of what will happen.
For anyone hoping for a traditional snowy Christmas, that’s not especially encouraging.
Toronto typically starts seeing snowfall in November, although the first flakes and the first actual accumulation can be quite different things.
That doesn’t mean an early snowstorm is out of the question. Weather systems can still bring sudden bursts of Arctic air and significant snowfall even during an El Niño winter. The difference is that warmer conditions could make those cold spells shorter and the snow might not stick around.
For the holidays, a white Christmas, as defined by Environment Canada, is having at least two centimetres of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. Toronto doesn’t get one every year.
A warm spell can quickly turn a snowy landscape into a wet, brown one. Conversely, a single storm in the days before Christmas can transform the city into a winter wonderland.
For now, a green Christmas is a possibility, not a prediction.
El Niño is a climate pattern involving warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Those changes influence atmospheric circulation around the world, affecting temperature and precipitation patterns in different regions.
This year’s developing event is expected to be exceptionally strong, potentially becoming one of the most powerful El Niño events in recorded history.
For now, Toronto residents hoping for a white Christmas may want to temper their expectations and enjoy the sunny fall, although there’s still plenty of time for winter to unfold in the city.