In Brief: According to AirDNA’s recent findings, the U.S. short-term rental market in 2026 is characterized by sustained consumer demand, while the influx of new properties has slowed down.
AirDNA, the leading provider of short-term rental (STR) data and analytics, today released its 2026 Midyear Outlook, finding that fewer new listings entering the market are helping established operators maintain occupancy and strengthen pricing.
AirDNA forecasts occupancy will average 57.4% in 2026, above the pre-pandemic average of 57.0%, while demand and available listings are both projected to grow 2.7%. RevPAR is forecast to increase 2.9%, driven by stronger nightly rates as growth accelerated from 0.7% year-over-year in January to about 3% by spring.
U.S. short-term rental historical performance and forecast, 2021–2027 (AirDNA 2026 Midyear Outlook)
“At the beginning of the year, we expected lower borrowing costs to bring more new supply to market,” said Bram Gallagher, Director of Economics and Forecasting at AirDNA. “Instead, renewed inflation driven by the war in Iran and the resulting energy shock pushed mortgage rates back above 6%, delaying investment. That slower supply growth, combined with healthy travel demand, has supported occupancy while creating stronger pricing conditions for established operators. As inflation eases, we expect demand and investment activity to strengthen further in 2027.”
The report points to shifting travel behavior: lead times are shrinking, trips are getting shorter, and travelers are increasingly choosing larger homes that offer more space and value for groups. Domestic travel continues to support demand even as international STR demand ran 12% below last spring, with the steepest declines in Canada, down 32% from 2024 levels, and parts of Western Europe. Meanwhile, the FIFA World Cup is boosting demand and pricing across several host markets.
San Francisco (+12.1%), Anaheim (+11.0%), and Philadelphia (+10.1%) have posted the strongest RevPAR growth so far this year, each in a market where supply has tightened, while the strongest supply growth is expected in more affordable small-city, rural, and mid-size markets, offering a lower cost of entry for investors.
“National averages only tell part of the story,” said Rohit Bezewada, CEO of AirDNA. “The operators and investors who succeed this year are the ones working from granular, market-level data, and that’s what AirDNA is built to deliver.”
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