Majority of Autumn Long-Haul Visitors to Europe Will Be First-Time Travellers, ETC Barometer Shows

Overview of Long-Haul Travel Intentions

The European Travel Commission (ETC) and Interrail have released the Long-Haul Travel Barometer 3/2026, which tracks travel intentions, preferences, and barriers for September to December among potential long-haul travellers from Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. The report indicates a decline in overall long-haul travel intentions: 50% of respondents plan an overseas trip between September and December, down from 55% the previous year. The intention to visit Europe specifically has also decreased, from 38% to 34%. Despite this, Europe still accounts for about two-thirds of all long-haul travel intentions.

Market-Specific Trends

Interest in travelling to Europe varies by country. In China, 54% of respondents plan a trip to Europe, down 15% from last year. Brazil’s intention rate is 45%, largely unchanged. South Korea is the only market to increase slightly, from 33% to 36%. Canada and Australia have seen declines, with 30% and 27% of respondents respectively considering a European trip. The United States also stands at 27%, while Japan is the least likely market, at 12%.

Booking Patterns and Commitment

Despite the overall decline in intention, the proportion of travellers with confirmed bookings remains stable. Across all surveyed markets, 17% of respondents have already booked flights to Europe, the same as last year. As fewer people plan European trips, those with confirmed bookings now represent 52% of that group, up from 42% last autumn. In China, 37% of respondents have already booked tickets to Europe, an increase from 33% last year and 26% in autumn 2019.

Barriers to Long-Haul Travel

Cost remains the primary barrier for long-haul travel, but its impact is lessening. Among those not planning a long-haul trip, 44% cite high travel costs as the main reason, down five percentage points from last year. For those travelling long-haul but not to Europe, 30% mention cost as a barrier, down 12 points. Other reasons include a preference for other world regions (23%) and limited holiday time (16%). Geopolitical concerns are less significant, with 7% citing the war in Ukraine and 6% mentioning conflict in the Middle East as reasons for not travelling to Europe.

Profile of Autumn Visitors

The report finds that 53% of prospective autumn visitors to Europe will be first-time travellers. This share is highest among respondents from China (61%) and the United States (57%). First-time visitors are more likely to book full package trips (52%), while repeat visitors tend to organise trips independently. Leisure is the main purpose of travel (73%), with most visitors planning stays of one to two weeks. The largest group budgets €100 to €200 per person per day.

Travel Itineraries and Connectivity

Only 34% of travellers plan to visit a single European country, while 66% intend to visit two or more. The average itinerary covers 2.7 countries, increasing to 3.3 for Australians. Southern and Mediterranean Europe are the most popular regions, with 67% planning to visit. France is the most mentioned country (52%), followed by Italy (35%) and Spain (25%). Air travel is the most popular mode of transport between countries, with 45% choosing low-cost airlines and 44% full-service airlines. Rail travel is also significant, with 40% planning to use rail passes and 39% point-to-point tickets.

Perception of Europe as a Single Destination

A total of 39% of travellers, including 43% of first-time visitors, view Europe as a single destination. This perception is most common among Japanese (68%) and South Korean (51%) travellers. Factors contributing to this view include strong connectivity between countries and shared systems such as a common currency and visa framework. These elements facilitate multi-country travel and reinforce the image of Europe as a unified destination.

The full report is available on the European Travel Commission’s website.