Summer’s still very much in swing, but the Old Farmer’s Almanac has already put out its 2026 fall weather forecast, and it’s giving Quebecers a decent head start on when to expect the season to actually turn.
Nationally, the outlook calls for a milder fall overall, with warmer-than-average temperatures across most of the country and above-average rainfall nearly everywhere except British Columbia. But the picture for southern Quebec is a bit more split than that national summary suggests.
According to the Almanac, temperatures across the province will divide roughly along an east-west line this fall, running warmer than normal in the east and cooler than normal in the west. Both September and October are expected to be wetter than average across the region as a whole.
When to expect the first snow
Southern Quebec, including Montreal, Quebec City, and the surrounding area, is forecast to see a stretch of chilly temperatures alongside rain and snow showers between October 11 and October 17. If that holds up, plenty of the province could be looking at its first snowfall of the season before Halloween even arrives.
For context, the rest of the country is tracking a similar pattern around the same window. Southern Ontario is forecast to see rain and snow between October 11 and 17 in the east, including Ottawa, and between October 15 and 21 further west. The southern Prairies, meanwhile, are expecting a colder stretch with rain and snow showers from October 8 to 20.
How the Almanac puts this together
The Almanac’s long-range forecasts are built on three things: solar activity, historical climate patterns, and meteorological data. Those signals get compared against a 30-year statistical average, currently based on the 1991 to 2020 period, to arrive at each region’s seasonal outlook.
It’s worth keeping in mind that this is a long-range forecast made months ahead of time, not a short-term weather forecast, so the specific dates could still shift. But if you usually put off digging your winter coat out of storage, this might be the year to get ahead of it.
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