Ontario’s first taste of winter is just around the corner, and if the latest long-range forecast is anything to go by, December is shaping up to be a bit of a mixed bag weather-wise.
The Old Farmers’ Almanac released its December 2026 long-range forecast for southern Ontario, predicting a month of fluctuating temperatures, plenty of flurries, and a combination of rain and snow depending on where you live in the province.
While some may be in for a snowy holiday season, others might only see rain showers and mild temperatures as we head into the new year.
Between Dec. 1 and 7, the Almanac predicts flurries across the province, which will then shift to rain coupled with milder temperatures. From Dec. 8 to 13, flurries are expected in the east, snow is expected in the west, and cold temperatures will likely settle in all around.
From Dec. 14 to 22, more mixed precipitation is expected across the southern portion of the province, with flurries in the east, rain showers in the west, and milder temperatures in both regions.
Depending on where you’re located, you might experience a white Christmas this year, according to the forecast. Between Dec. 23 and 31, the east is expected to see flurries and mild temperatures, while southwestern Ontario will see snowy periods and cold temperatures.
Overall, the average temperature in December 2026 is expected to be -2°C, which is 1°C above average. Meanwhile, precipitation totals will likely reach 55 mm, which is 15 mm below average in the east, and 15 mm above average in the west.
Earlier forecasts have predicted that this will be Ontario’s “mildest winter in years,” thanks to a supersized El Niño — a natural climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
The pattern typically begins developing between March and June and reaches peak intensity sometime between November and February. El Niño is known to drive extreme weather worldwide, increasing the risk of floods, droughts, and heat.
According to The Weather Network, December temperatures in Toronto during strong El Niño years have averaged 2.6°C warmer than normal, meaning this upcoming winter might not seem as harsh as others.
Still, that doesn’t mean the city — or Ontario — will be immune from snowstorms during this period, which could still determine how this winter is remembered overall.
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