Toronto could kick off October with a summer-like high of between 23 C and 25 C on Thursday, according to Environment Canada. That’s about eight degrees warmer than the normal daytime high of 17 C for this time of year!
The warmth won’t stick around for long, though. Environment Canada forecasts a high of just 18 C on Friday with an overnight low of 7 C, followed by 19 C Saturday. If you’re heading to Nuit Blanche Saturday night, bring a jacket: temperatures are expected to drop to around 9 C overnight. Sunday will reach a more seasonal high of 17 C, before temperatures dip even further to a high of just 14 C on Monday.
After weeks of mostly dry conditions, there could also finally be some rain mixed in with the changing temperatures, too. Thursday comes with a 60 per cent chance of showers (this jumps to 40 per cent overnight), while Friday carries a 30 per cent chance.
Even a little rain would be notable after Toronto’s long dry spell. The city hasn’t recorded measurable rainfall since Sept. 16, meaning the dry stretch has now lasted nearly two weeks! The Weather Network reported last Wednesday that the prolonged stretch could become Pearson’s longest of 2026, with persistent high pressure steering most precipitation away from southern Ontario.
Rain aside, even if next week’s cooler temperatures feel more autumn-like, Toronto will have more mild stretches ahead. Expect above-seasonal temperatures overall throughout Ontario, with a strong El Niño expected to favour more mild spells than cold snaps and delay the arrival of sustained winter weather.
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s latest seasonal outlook gives Toronto a 50 to 59 per cent probability of above-normal temperatures from December through February. From January through March, Toronto has a 70 to 79 per cent probability of temperatures running above normal.